Air Traffic Management

According to The guardian [http://www.guardian.co.uk/travel/2006/jan/29/theairlineindustry.ecotourism.observerescapesection] and Eurostar as quoted by the site seat61.com, flying from London to Paris one way [including the drive to the airport I guess] produces 122kg of CO2 per passenger [occupancy rate of aircraft unavailable]. A similar journey by train [and where the car journey is shorter, I guess] produces 11kg of CO2 per passenger [again occupancy rate is unknown].

Now, we may argue that the numbers are broad approximations and that the sources are biased. This may well be true, but I think since the differences are so great that we can agree that flying pollutes much [much, much] more than taking the train.

Using an image from http://3.bp.blogspot.com - thank you.

In this blog entry I am trying to think what could be happening in the next decade to aviation, especially in Europe.

So, given that oil will become more expensive and that current aircraft consume and pollute a lot, what should the aviation industry’s strategy be? A strategy which on the one hand guarantees a more environmental friendly approach [something which is not only ethically correct vis-à-vis nature and ourselves but is also quickly becoming a market demand] and on the other maintains a viable industry on its feet?  What should the right strategies be?

Here are three thoughts:

1. Innovate and become more efficient
2. Have a more integral approach to transport
3. Accept reality and bank on the unique non-substitute areas - make positive lobby

1 Innovate and become more efficient [or become extinct]:

In terms of innovation I can see two work areas on which the industry should [is] work[ing]

A. Longer term [but crucial to survival]: Engines and aircraft framework

In terms of engines, aircraft produced today, with a shelf life that easily exceeds 30 years are fossil fuel gulping monsters. These planes will stay with us until 2040. It seems to me that in terms of R&D, when it comes to alternative ways of propulsion, we are significantly behind the changes which lie on the horizon. The first hybrid or non fossil fuel reliant engines will not be produced for a long time still. So we can say that as by today’s situation, we will have to stick with a certain amount of fossil fuel propelled aircraft until 2060.

In terms of the aircraft framework, we are already seeing lighter planes which use less fuel. This is a first step. Research should continue to make aircraft lighter and more aerodynamic…

B. Short to medium term: Efficient routing

Probably in terms of short to medium term improvements, this is where it needs to happen. Flights need to become more direct, with less en route and approach delays. Flights need to be able to climb, descend and cruise at fuel consumption optimised profiles.

Investment here is under way because with the prices of kerosene on the up, the flying community puts substantial pressure on the Air Traffic Management side to reduce its flying costs.

Conclusion on innovation: ATM efficiencies will only come part of the way needed to achieve future sustainability and even the most direct routes with the most consumption efficient profiles will still consume tonnes of litres of fuel. Unless [serious] pressure is put on aviation to innovate on the engines and on the aircraft framework engineering, we will continue to produce fuel gulping aircraft for years to come.

2 Have a more integral approach to transport.

Air transportation is transportation

In reality, rail, air and even road transportation is all about getting people and goods from A to B.

Airline companies should maybe change their strategy and see their business scope enlarged to transportation in general and not solely limited it to air transport. I have not made any research on whether this is already the case, but I would say that in terms of transport, companies should / would start merging strategies. I would say that airlines should start buying shares of rail companies [and vice versa...]

Transport should be seen as one integrated industrial sector and for me the future winners are those which will be able to earn money on a transport offer which adapts to the market’s needs not withstanding the distance to be travelled, the location of the two places A and B and the nature of the persons / goods to be transported.

I think that after the airline industry consolidation we should start seeing a transportation industry consolidation…

3 Accept reality…[whilst making the best out of it]

A successful company would be one which accepts reality and which would bank on its strengths and manages its weaknesses. Talking about Europe, reality is that with a maturing fast train network connecting not only major but also medium sized cities over one given continent and or large countries, inter city flights may likely decline in market demand over the coming years. With oil prices growing and with environmental awareness raising [and with it governmental taxations on carbon emissions] European Inter city flying [at least with destinations under 1200 kms of distance i.e. 4 hours of train city to city] may be out of business some, not too far, a day. [And this includes low cost carriers]

So what would be a good strategy? It surely should not be that of tobacco companies in the past, i.e. denial and counter propaganda [even if some of this will anyway happen]. In my opinion [apart from what has been mentioned above in terms of integrating other means of transport within the company's portfolio] this would be to start lobbying on the strong holds of aviation travel [I call it positive lobbying], where the alternative is not modernly viable with alternative means. This includes all water crossing - e.g. accessing islands and flights between connecting destinations which are further than 2000kms apart.  There companies could lobby that there is a public mission [and an economical one too] of theirs to transport people between these places and that these flights should not be extra penalised by new eco friendly malus taxations, which will continue to come into place in the coming years.  In return airlines would agree to heavier tax shorter flights, implicitly acknowledging that alternatives exist.

This would protect aviation until innovative and sustainable propulsion becomes feasible.

In the mean time pressure should start being put on manufacturers [probably the market will regulate itself through cost of demand versus offer, etc. anyway but being proactive won't hurt] to innovate before fuel will become too expensive anyway to scare more revenue away from airlines [and from the rest of the supply chain].

Finally, [after all this is an ATM blog] what could the repercussions on ATM be?

Well, in terms of Europe, air traffic may plateau earlier than expected. The 2009 crisis showed a severe correction to traffic growth. Traffic will recover from this one and will continue to grow to unprecedented figures, but will this trend resist the next blow? Will it resist, even with all ATM and trajectory improvements, oil prices in excess of $150 a barrel?  Will it resist the growing environmentalist awareness and the market and lobby this is putting over governments who will potentially start heavily taxing all sorts of CO2 consumption [and we know current aircraft consume a lot]?

And when will this plateau potentially happen?

I have a gut feeling that in Europe, given oil prices, environmental awareness, the infrastructure and maturity of alternative means of transportation, mainly fast trains, this could happen in the next ten years.  Which then means that the current mass investments in air traffic management to be able to accommodate tomorrows demands may in fact be the last one before a new flying technology is introduced. One which does not use fossil fuels.

Maybe I may sound too pessimistic, but frankly that is what my glass ball is showing me. [and maybe my blog, if it will still exist then, it will talk about transportation in general ]

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Towards the end of 2009, EUROCONTROL released a Phraseology Database called ‘Say Again’.

Image from Eurocontrol's website

This database [to whose development I participated] provides you with a engine which searches through out ATC phraseology key words. Once you find the phrase you are looking for, you can then retrieve the standard ICAO syntax for the phrase. You are also provided with an example, both written and sound, the context within which the phrase should be used and its relation with other phrases.

Screen shot from Say Again

A special thanks also goes to LFV, Sweden, as a good number of examples originate from its training school.

Goto Eurocontrol’s Training Zone and search for ‘Say Again’ in the course catalogue.

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This is an article I wrote which has been published on the Hindsight Magazine - A magazine published by EUROCONTROL on ATC Safety. This edition focused on level busts.

In a TMA somewhere in Europe:

Approach: “Tango X-ray Yankee zero five tree, descend to flight level eight zero.”

TXY053: “Roger, descending to flight level eight zero, Tango X-ray Yankee zero five tree.”

After a while as the controller observes the mode C of TXY053 passing FL79 and descending:

Approach: “Tango X-ray Yankee zero five tree confirm maintaining flight level eight zero, traffic in the holding stack at your seven o’clock one thousand feet below your cleared flight level.”

TXY053: “TCAS RA, Tango X-ray Yankee zero five tree.”

…

Around the same time in another TMA not so far away from the first:

Approach: “Victor Zulu Alpha seven seven six, descend to flight level eight zero.”

VZA776: “Roger, descending to flight level eight zero, victor zulu alpha seven seven six.”

After a moment, when the VZA was still passing FL100 in the descent, the controller checks the vertical stack list and notices that the aircraft selected flight level, as input by the pilot is FL 60.

Approach:  ”Victor Zulu Alpha seven seven six, check selected level. Cleared level is flight level eight zero.”

VZA776: “Eeeh, roger, stopping descend at flight level eight zero, Victor Zulu Alpha seven seven six.

There are several reasons why a level bust can happen, and some of the other articles in this issue of Hindsight either talk directly about these, or recount situations where level busts (nearly) happened and then analyse some of the reasons why they did with the aim of learning for the future.

Likewise, there are several ways for us in the aviation community to prevent level busts from happening and (when they happen anyhow) to help us to recover as quickly as possible and avoid a dangerous situation developing.

It is worth mentioning some of the items in our tool kit for prevention and recovery:

The good definition of design and procedures governing the airspace.

The ATC and aircraft operator’s standard operating procedures.

Radio discipline and appropriate phraseology.

Training and awareness on the issue.

Team work, vigilance and situational awareness.

.
In the VZA case above, we saw yet another tool in the kit that can assist with the prevention - the display at the controller’s position of the  down-linked selected flight level set on board the aircraft.

This is possible when the air traffic control system in use supports the processing and display of Mode S enhanced surveillance (EHS) and more specifically of the down-link aircraft parameter [DAP] - Selected Flight Level / Altitude (SFL or ALT SEL).  Now, I am not an engineer, so I stop with the technical description while (I think) I am still on top! However, I decided to try and find out whether the display of Mode S EHS SFL actually helps reducing level busts and I discovered the following:

The European Action Plan for the prevention of level busts, dated July 2004 asks air navigation service providers [ANSPs] to consider the introduction of Mode S Selected Altitude display. I found that only two or possibly three European ANSPs have actually introduced this but that all of them reported a significant (in some cases of the order of 25%) decrease in level busts following the implementation..

Also, I found that in general, the controllers working with systems where Mode S SFLis adequately displayed at their working position, are happy with this feature and feel that it is of major benefit to safety.

I then asked IFATCA if they had any concerns about the introduction of an SFL display to controllers and I was told that they had nothing against SFL display but that before implementing such a system an ANSP should study its implications on the system and on the controller in an holistic way. Issues considered should include:

The best way to display the data to controllers.

Prioritisation between warnings (STCA, TCAS, APW, Route deviation, etc. etc.) so as to avoid data overload and any conflict between  alerts, warnings and systems

Legal responsibility issues such as what is the status of the information presented (operational, trial or for information only?) and what are the consequences of using, or not using, such information.

Ensuring that controllers appreciate  that the SFL function displays intent-based information and that there may be circumstances when an aircraft will not fly to its selected level such as when it is being flown manually or when an incorrect altimeter sub scale setting has been used in the cockpit.

In one specific implementation about which I have been informed all the potential technical and operational issues described above seem to have been addressed  The ANSP in question has also sought to clarify that, in terms of legal responsibility, the checking of the SFL display was not mandatory but  that it was encouraged as an additional way to prompt early prevention of possible level busts.  This ANSP also provided detailed briefings to the controllers on the policy and on the tools which were being introduced. As a result Enhanced Mode S was well received and has provided significant safety benefits by reducing the incidence of level busts, which had  previously been identified as one of their major safety risks.

So, if we have good examples of implementations which contribute to significant reductions in the occurrence of level busts, why is this technology not in more widespread use?  Certainly, EHS capability cannot appear on all aircraft straight away and there are bound to be significant costs for an ANSP to install such a system.  Within the scope of this article, I did not choose to investigate further about the reasons behind the lack of implementations. However, what is important to note is that we already have enough operational evidence to show that properly-implemented display of SFL for controllers can significantly reduce level busts.

In conclusion, there are many reasons why level busts can occur. There are equally many means the ATC and the flying communities can adopt to prevent them from happening. Most of these measures are complimentary and the use of one should not exclude the other. Now we have another: the real time display of aircraft selected flight level to the controller.  It is not the panacea for level bust, but can be another significant means of prevention. In my opinion controllers should lobby for its installation in their working environment and ANSPs should endeavour to install it appropriately as quickly as possible. Safety is at stake.

[end of article]

You can find the Hindsight magazine by clicking here

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I have just learned of a new e-learning module developed for the SESAR Joint Undertaking that aims at describing SESAR and the SJU.

I found the presentation as very fresh and informative. The technology used in this presentation is quite innovative and very well polished. It is worth to look at for both the aesthetics and also for its content.

I could not embed the presentation, so click on the image to access the presentation.

In brief, the presentation is divided into three sections: an introduction by the SESAR JU CEO, Patrick Ky, an introduction to the SESAR programme and an Introduction to the SJU.

I personally found that the introduction by Patrick is very well made. So is the introduction to the SESAR programme part. It gives in a brief and simple manner the challenges of aviation and air traffic management and the objectives of the programme. I found that the part describing the SJU was a bit less well made. There are considerable portions of this part where the narrator is reading extensive passages of text that are being type simultaneously on the screen. I did not know what to concentrate on: reading or listening? [this effect was not present in the previous part of the presentation]

The SJU calls this module an e-learning module, while I tend to call it a multi-media presentation. The reason I say this is that even if it is very ‘flash’ and polished, it severely lacks in interaction with the user as well as on feedback mechanisms which for me are necessary elements in learning. The navigation is also very basic, i.e. that of a standard video. I would expect a better pedagogical approach for an e-learning module. The presentation could be at least divided into three chapters - even if it is within the same video. Chaptering would enable direct access to a part you would like to go into again. Also I do not know if it is the streaming server or my receiving server which was particularly slow, but at one point the presentation blocked and no matter how many times I tried to rewind or forward the navigation pointer, it stayed blocked until I refreshed the screen.

As a conclusion, this presentation for me opens a new way of presenting things in the multi media environment for air traffic management. The approach and the look and feel are very fresh and made well in simply and succinctly presenting some complex ideas. There is some more work to do to turn this kind of presentation into an e-learning module mainly interactivity with the user [which for example could be an extra part of the web page on which the video is embedded] and better navigation mechanisms which would improve the direct access of certain information time and time again.
Finally I think the presentation was developed by Emakina [the video is hosted on their server]. Well done EMAKINA for the graphical effects!

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Three years ago, Eurocontrol set to develop training material to sensiblise air traffic controllers on the risks that can occure during position handovers and to provide suggestions and tools to minimise these risks.

In preparation for the development of this training material, a research study was conducted to identify the factors affecting handovers and takeovers. The document referred to here reports the findings of this research. It includes the following sections:

• A literature review including reports on the study performed by the National Air Traffic Services Ltd. UK (NATS) on handovers and the establishment of best practices based on this study;
• Interviews of Safety Experts which summarises the interviews on handover-related safety hazards conducted with the safety managers of two Air Navigation Services Providers (ANSPs);
• Training Material Review, the existing pedagogic material relative to position handovers in Europe is reviewed and analysed (prior to the Web-based training on factors dealing with handover/takeover produced by EUROCONTROL in 2006);
• Identification of the Main Handover-related Safety Issues’, provides, based on the information collected during the study, a preliminary list of the main handover-related safety issues that should be addressed to improve handover processes and
• Key findings of this preliminary study on handover

It also contains  a number of checklists whcih were in use in different European ANSPs

It can be found here

Enjoy the read.

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What is the ceiling or range of an Airbus 380? What is the MTOW of a Boeing 737-800? What is the expected performance of an aircraft? How does it look like? It is all freely available on the Eurocontrol Aircraft Performance database for 300 aircraft types.

Eurocontrol aircraft performance database

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Here are two videos explaining the military flying in the Single European Sky

Part 1

and

Part 2

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Need a one stop shop for legal publications on Air Law - Here seems to be one solution.

Click here

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I have recently read a very interesting report on the challenges that leading aviation experts identify for the future of ATM, especially in Europe. The conclusion of this study is that even though these experts have identified significant challenges for the future, they still anticipate long term growth for the industry. [since these experts mainly come from the aviation community one can say that at least the experts still believe in their sector, but one can also say that the report may be biased because it is too close to the experts' home. Anyways, I am also too close to be objective...]

Some of the challenging areas they have identified range from the need for more innovation, to defragmentation of airspace, to management of resources to marketing, security environment and ticket pricing. So as you can see it is very broad. Here are some of the broad lines in some of these areas.

Innovation: The challenge is that the rate of innovation in ATM is slower than that of the flight deck for example. Technology ages, regulation and certification cycles are too long…

Safety: Ensuring safety while increasing complexity of the system is another challenge. To this challenge one needs to add another one: of how to conciliate the safety paradigm with the market led economic regulation one [which many times are at perpendicular angles to each other] Yet another challenge in this area will be to maintain the perception of safety [of course this perception needs to be backed up by the real McCoy] in an ever decreasing risk tolerant society.

Environment: A hygienic factor. Society seems to perceive aviation as a major contributor to environmental issues. This may reduce travel demand in the future because of extra taxes and emissions quotas. Here my comment is that better selling of aviation should be done. Where as it is true that toxic emissions and noise are environment issues caused by aviation, it should not be compared to road transport for example. Whereas train travel is seen as an alternative cleaner way of transport to the car - mass transportation,[ noise and emissions] air travel does not. Yet trains pollute as well.

I would say that the emphasis of this challenge should be more on how to selling the industry to society rather than on the reality of the problem itself [I am thinking of the bonus malus schemes in some countries to incite people to buy cleaner cars- but these cleaner cars are still for individualistic use and pollute.]

Defragmentation: A challenge is to defragment airspace and service provision to achieve efficiencies and economies of scales. A barrier to this is country sovereignty but also a lack of clarity of who is in charge of regulation, specification, system construction, certification etc. on a broader scale.

Human in the system: How to bring the human in the system to meet future roles in an intensely automated system? A second issue is that in the transition between current systems and paradigms and the future concepts there is a severe lack of resources which in turn slow down change, innovation and improvement. In a way this is a paradox. We need more people now to define and implement a system which will be more and more automated then….

Scarcity management: The aviation industry is saturated. Resources [fuel, space, etc] are becoming scarce. The industry needs to learn how to efficiently manage scarcity.

Marketing: The industry tries to identify trends in air travel for the future but seems to lack the understanding of the influencing factors t these trends.

Security - The aviation industry needs to deal with this challenge both at the societal side of things but also in the technologies that ensure the running of the system. These systems may become targets of security threats and of sabotage acts which will have implications on safety and efficiency in the future.

Lastly in my list, ticket prices seem to be at their lowest, meaning that the future trend is upwards.

All these challenges will need to be considered both when running day to day business and while conceiving and implementing changes and improvements. The experts thinks there is still hope…

As I wrote before this is an interesting report. Worth a read and a thought.

Click here for the report

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Will they land?

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